2008: The year ahead
Peter Wills
CEO Snap Surveys
Some pundits have heralded 2008 as “The Year of the Recession”, which is perhaps rather a gloomy way to start the year. Certainly, the global credit crunch and the major problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market have had a lot to do with it, but other pundits have heralded 2008 as the year of “accountability and relevance” which probably means it’s time to catch your breath and keep a close eye on your overheads…
In the IT industry, recessions come and recessions go, but there’s always a buzz with new technologies arriving thick and fast – if anything they come thicker and faster every year.
Within the marketing and market research industry, there’s been lots of head scratching and crystal ball gazing from lots of sources, so which of the predictions are likely to affect us all?
Technology
The Apple iPhone was certainly one of the leading technologies for 2007, and all the phone manufacturers have been playing catch-up to provide something similar to a new and very neat technology. Many of us may question the cost and all the added functionality for what is effectively a phone, but when Apple launches a technology, there’s always a major take-up amongst the faithful followers.
MacBook Air with gesture-based features like the iPhone
Apple tends to launch major products at the beginning of each year at MacWorld and 2008 is no exception; they’ve just launched the MacBook Air. This is an ultra slim laptop with wireless connectivity, weighing in at just 1.36Kg (3lbs), with many of the gesture-based features that were launched on the iPhone. I suspect that it won’t be long before Microsoft attempts to implement similar technologies into their Windows operating systems.
Soon computers will be in the desk and not just on them
Bill Gates of Microsoft is a regular presenter at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. In 1994, he predicted that we were entering the first “digital decade” as the number of PC’s had topped 1 billion and mobile phone penetration had reached 40% of the global population. At the 2008 event, just a couple of week ago, in what was his final presentation before stepping aside to oversee his charitable foundation, he was predicting the second digital decade, one focused on connecting people together and one where software will be everywhere - on phones, televisions, tables, watches, etc. Soon computers will be in the desk and not just on them.
He predicted the demise of the keyboard and mouse, both of which would be replaced by gadgets that respond to speech and touch. We’ve had the promise of speech-driven IT for some years and I suspect that we’ll see many more touch-based technologies in 2008.
2008 may well be the year when the battle for the next generation of DVDs is finally won. Blu-Ray looks set to dominate at last as Sony is about to do deals with Warner Bros, who themselves have the largest DVD catalogue in Hollywood. With Apple also circulating rumours of making Blu-Ray their preferred format, the war may just be over.
A few years ago, media companies used to struggle to keep up with technology. Today, the tables have turned and the technology companies are fighting to do deals with media companies, and 2008 will see the continuation of that turnaround.
Three trends have come together to drive this new spirit of cooperation. Firstly, the ubiquity of the Internet. Secondly, flat screens – if a product has a flat surface, it’s going to get a screen and that means advertising and revenue. Thirdly, it’s the increased portability, and the ability to play music, look at photos, watch videos on pretty much any device.
Apple has been the company to watch for the last few years, since they launched the iPod and iTunes, and then in 2007 adopting the Intel processor in their computers. There is definitely a fear in the industry of Apple dominating the market, and certainly competitors will be making moves in 2008 to head them off.
Marketing and Market Research
The Bellwether report, a leading indicator for the marketing industry, recorded the steepest fall in marketing budgets in 2007 Q4 for nearly 2 years. It’s true that marketing budgets in 2006 and 2007 had been riding high, but it is highly likely that marketing budgets in 2008 are going to be subject to further trimming.
Forrester, a leading research agency, are predicting that in 2008, over 25% of the Fortune 100 companies will launch online customer communities, and that this move will move dollars from traditional qualitative research to budgets for online communities.
2008 is certainly not a year for breaking open the champagne, and the spend on corporate hospitality is very unlikely to see any increases. A lack of representation at Euro 2008 by any of the UK countries will undoubtedly have an effect on advertising and corporate hospitality, and it’s probably unlikely that any such budgets will be spent elsewhere, such as the Beijing Olympics.
It is widely expected to be a tough year for conferences and meetings, with the move to reduce budgets wherever possible. This will result in more online meetings (some even predict the use of Second Life for such events) and conferences will be looking to add value and add more engagement with audience to provide instant feedback.
On the eco front, it’s generally agreed that going green has been a good trend, but there’s the possibility of consumer backlash if companies fail to back up green marketing with sustainable business models. It is widely believed that in 2008 jute bags will have a really great year, together with the Vegetal pen – believed to be 80% biodegradeable. Chewing the end of your pen might one day be regarded as a healthy pastime.
43% of all quantitative research is now online
As for market research, a recent survey funded by Confirmit identified that 43% of all revenue from quantitative research is now attributable to online research (up from 40% a year ago). Revenue from CATI-based telephone surveys was found to be down to just 25%, with paper-based surveys accounting for 19% and 6% from mixed mode. It appears that everybody is expecting growth in mixed mode surveys, and the industry is ready with the products. However, nobody is quite sure when the growth will start and how large the market will become.
According to the survey, it appears that the market research industry’s number one challenge is falling response rates, followed by an upsurge in “professional” respondents, who sign up to for any panels and focus groups that they can find with the intention of generating an income.
It is also anticipated that more users are likely to change their software (34% this year as opposed to 26% for last year), with the largest change being amongst large companies, where 47% of them are expecting to change their software in 2008.
Another trend to watch for this year, according to Forrester, is the adoption of low cost online survey tools by departments as diverse as HR and IT, and that traditional Market Research companies will suffer as more market research is brought in-house with DIY tools. This is a trend that we’ve obviously been watching at Snap Surveys and is little surprise to us. In a year of “accountability and relevance”, we may see a marked increase in the use of DIY software in sectors that previously might have outsourced.
A final thought…
Finally, if there’s one dead cert for 2008, it’s that we’re all likely to break those New Year’s resolutions that we made, and most of us have probably done so already. However, if you want some help to keep your resolution going, startaresolution.com can help. Do let me know later in the year if you’re still managing to keep your New Year resolutions.